A closer look at the incoming VPD

In this article...
From 1 October 2026, the UK Government will introduce Vaping Products Duty (VPD). A new excise tax that will apply to vape liquids sold in the United Kingdom. The announcement has raised plenty of questions from adult vapers, many of whom are understandably concerned about rising costs and what the new legislation means for the future of vaping.
One question appears more than others:
Why is the Government introducing a vape tax in the first place?
Officially, the answer is more than just “to raise money”. According to HM Treasury and HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), the policy has been designed to achieve two objectives simultaneously: to discourage young people from taking up vaping while continuing to support adult smokers who switch to less harmful alternatives.
Let's look at the Government’s reasoning, examine the evidence behind the policy, and explore whether the new tax is likely to achieve its intended aims.
One Policy, Two Objectives
Unlike existing tobacco duty, the Vaping Products Duty has not been introduced solely to generate more tax revenue.
Instead, the Government has consistently described the new duty as balancing two separate objectives.
The first is to make vaping products less appealing to children and young people by increasing their retail price. The second is to preserve vaping as a more affordable alternative to smoking by increasing tobacco tax simultaneously.
These two objectives sit at the heart of the Government’s consultation response and subsequent legislation.
In its official papers, HM Treasury acknowledges that vaping is an important smoking cessation tool for millions across the UK. At the same time, ministers have expressed concern over the growing popularity of vaping among people who have never smoked, particularly under-18s.
Instead of discouraging vaping altogether, the Government claims it is attempting to strike a balance between protecting public health and minimising tobacco harm reduction.
Public Health Vs Revenue
One of the most discussed aspects of Vaping Products Duty is the amount of money it is expected to generate for the UK Treasury.
According to the Government’s official policy costings, VPD is forecast to raise increasing levels of revenue once fully implemented. Current estimates published alongside Budget 2025 project revenue of:
| Financial Year | Forecast Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2026-27 | £135 million |
| 2027-28 | £400 million |
| 2028-29 | £465 million |
| 2029-30 | £530 million |
| 2030-31 | £565 million |
These forecasts have been certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). They show the Government’s expectation that VPD will become a significant source of tax revenue over the coming years
The figures have led some to argue that the policy is less about public health and primarily a revenue-raising exercise. However, that isn’t how the Government presents the legislation.
The Government maintains the VPD is intended to do both.
From a public health perspective, ministers argue that increasing the cost of vaping products may help reduce youth experimentation and use. Economic research has long suggested that price can influence consumer behaviour, particularly among younger people with lower disposable incomes.
However, the Government has also been clear that vaping remains an important tool for adult smokers looking to quit tobacco products.
This is why the introduction of VPD is being accompanied by changes to tobacco taxation.
By increasing tobacco duty alongside the new vape duty, ministers intend to maintain what they describe as a financial incentive for smokers to choose vaping over cigarettes.
In other words, while vaping products are expected to become more expensive, smoking should remain significantly more expensive.
Why Is Youth Vaping Such a Political Issue?
One of the biggest drivers behind the new tax has been the rapid growth in youth vaping over recent years.
While it is illegal to sell nicotine vaping products to anyone under the age of 18, Government surveys have shown an increase in use among young people, particularly with disposable vape products that became wildly popular across the UK from 2020 onward.
In response, a broader set of measures were designed to reduce youth vaping. This included restrictions on disposable vapes, tighter controls on advertising and product presentation, and the introduction of Vaping Products Duty.
The Government thinks higher prices may deter young people who are experimenting with vaping, while having less impact on adult smokers who rely on it as an alternative to cigarettes.
Whether taxation alone is enough to reduce youth vaping remains to be seen. But pricing has become a core part of the Government’s wider strategy.
What Evidence Did The Government Use?
The VPD wasn't a sudden decision.
It followed consultation launched by HM Treasury in March 2024, where manufacturers, retailers, public health organisations, trade bodies and consumers were invited to provide evidence and feedback on how the vape tax should be designed.
The consultation had 114 responses, covering topics like:
- How the duty should be calculated.
- Whether nicotine strength should affect the tax rate.
- How products should be tracked through the supply chain.
- The potential impact on smokers switching to vaping.
- The risk of encouraging illicit trade.
Following this, the Government made several changes to its original proposals.
One of the most significant, was its decision to abandon a tiered tax based on nicotine strength in favour of a single flat rate of £2.20 per 10ml (ex VAT). According to the Treasury, this approach is easier for businesses to administer, reduces issues over product classification and aligns more closely with systems used in several other countries.
This consultation process also resulted in the Vaping Duty Stamps Scheme, which is intended to improve traceability and help enforcement agencies identify duty-paid products more easily.
Will the Policy Achieve Its Objectives?
This is likely to be a closely watched question over the coming months/years.
The Government believes VPD will:
- Reduce youth uptake by increasing retail prices.
- Support wider tobacco reduction objectives.
- Improve compliance through duty stamps.
- Reduce opportunities for tax evasion.
- Retain vaping as a cheaper alternative to smoking.
However, some stakeholders have highlighted potential pitfalls.
One concern is if higher prices could encourage some people to purchase products through unregulated channels or overseas sellers who do not comply with UK legislation.
Another is whether significant price increases could discourage some smokers from switching to vaping in the first place.
Recognising this, HMRC has confirmed that the impact and effectiveness of VPD will be monitored once useable data becomes available. Future evaluations are expected to consider if the policy has reduced youth uptake while supporting the Government’s wider goal of creating a smoke-free generation.
As with any major public health policy, the true impact of VPD will depend on both the legislation itself, and how consumers, retailers and manufacturers respond after implementation.
The Electronic Cigarette Company's View
We recognise and support sensible regulation that protects young people while supporting adult smokers who have successfully switched to vaping.
We also believe policies that affect millions of adult vapers should be based on robust evidence and implemented in a way that maintains access to high-quality, fully compliant vaping products.
As the vape tax approaches, our priority is ensuring customers understand exactly why it is being introduced, how it will affect vape prices, and what changes to expect from October 2026 onwards.
We promise to continue to break down complex Government guidance into clear, easy to understand advice that helps vapers make informed decisions.
Sources
(1). HM Revenue & Customs. Introduction of Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026
(2). HM Treasury. Vaping Products Duty Consultation and Consultation Outcome
(3). HM Revenue & Customs. Preparing for Vaping Products Duty and the Vaping Duty Stamps Scheme
(4). Office for Budget Responsibility. Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Budget 2025)
(5). Department of Health and Social Care. Stopping the Start: Our New Plan to Create a Smokefree Generation
(6). NHS. Using E-cigarettes to Stop Smoking